Profitable CFD Trading Strategies
Making of use of two critical measures of trading performance can dramatically improve your trading results. These two important measurements are the hit rate (winning %) and the risk reward.
To calculate the hit rate divide the number of profitable trades by the total number of trades. The risk reward is the average win divided by the average loss. The risk reward is a measure of how your profits compare to your losses, while the hit rate measures how often your strategy is profitable.
Is Trading CFDs Like Winning Lotto?
Do you really believe that lotto is the way to make money? The behaviour of millions of people would suggest that it is.
The attraction of lotto is the low outlay or risk. If you lose it only costs you $10 and if you win the returns are potentially enormous, maybe $10 million. The risk reward of Lotto is 1 million:1. This is an excellent risk reward ratio and one you are very unlikely to find anywhere else.
However if it was that easy we would have all won lotto. This is not the case and while the risk reward is exceptional, the hit rate is lousy. Assuming that the lotto draw requires 6 balls out of 40 to win then the chance of buying the winning ticket are 3,838,380:1.
If you bought 3,838,380 tickets on average one ticket would win and the rest (3,838,379) would lose. This means on average you would have to spend $38,383,790 to win $10 million. Overall playing Lotto would cost you $28,383,790.
Winning Lotto is more about luck than probability as you may win before you buy you 3,838,380 ticket. But when it comes to building a profitable trading strategy it is not about luck it is about taking advantage of an opportunity that has a profitable edge.
Trading Lessons From A Rugby Game
The Crusaders have dominated the Super 14 rugby series in New Zealand in the last 10 years as they won 7 years out of the last ten.
For one of the games in 2008 a gambler placed a bet that the Crusaders would win. The odds were 1.08 which means the $100,000 bet that was placed would return just $8,000 profit if the gambler won. With a risk of $100,000 and an upside of just $8,000 the risk reward is very poor at 8:100.
Despite the lousy risk reward the probability of success is very high. If the probability was greater than 90% that the Crusaders would win then this could be the basis of a profitable strategy.
The odds are unknown, but assuming they were 95% then the gambler would win 19 out of 20 times. This means he would win $8,000 x 19 - $100,000 x 1. Overall he expects to win $52,000 from this strategy. So despite the risk reward being very poor it is possible that this is a winning strategy.
Successful trading is about following a profitable strategy and by using a combination of the hit rate and the risk reward you can ensure the strategy provides you with an edge. - 23204
To calculate the hit rate divide the number of profitable trades by the total number of trades. The risk reward is the average win divided by the average loss. The risk reward is a measure of how your profits compare to your losses, while the hit rate measures how often your strategy is profitable.
Is Trading CFDs Like Winning Lotto?
Do you really believe that lotto is the way to make money? The behaviour of millions of people would suggest that it is.
The attraction of lotto is the low outlay or risk. If you lose it only costs you $10 and if you win the returns are potentially enormous, maybe $10 million. The risk reward of Lotto is 1 million:1. This is an excellent risk reward ratio and one you are very unlikely to find anywhere else.
However if it was that easy we would have all won lotto. This is not the case and while the risk reward is exceptional, the hit rate is lousy. Assuming that the lotto draw requires 6 balls out of 40 to win then the chance of buying the winning ticket are 3,838,380:1.
If you bought 3,838,380 tickets on average one ticket would win and the rest (3,838,379) would lose. This means on average you would have to spend $38,383,790 to win $10 million. Overall playing Lotto would cost you $28,383,790.
Winning Lotto is more about luck than probability as you may win before you buy you 3,838,380 ticket. But when it comes to building a profitable trading strategy it is not about luck it is about taking advantage of an opportunity that has a profitable edge.
Trading Lessons From A Rugby Game
The Crusaders have dominated the Super 14 rugby series in New Zealand in the last 10 years as they won 7 years out of the last ten.
For one of the games in 2008 a gambler placed a bet that the Crusaders would win. The odds were 1.08 which means the $100,000 bet that was placed would return just $8,000 profit if the gambler won. With a risk of $100,000 and an upside of just $8,000 the risk reward is very poor at 8:100.
Despite the lousy risk reward the probability of success is very high. If the probability was greater than 90% that the Crusaders would win then this could be the basis of a profitable strategy.
The odds are unknown, but assuming they were 95% then the gambler would win 19 out of 20 times. This means he would win $8,000 x 19 - $100,000 x 1. Overall he expects to win $52,000 from this strategy. So despite the risk reward being very poor it is possible that this is a winning strategy.
Successful trading is about following a profitable strategy and by using a combination of the hit rate and the risk reward you can ensure the strategy provides you with an edge. - 23204
About the Author:
Jeff Cartridge is the author of Supercharge Your Trading with CFDs and created the website LearnCFDs.com Find the Best CFD Trading Books
posted by X - Men @ 2:39 AM
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