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Tuesday, September 22, 2009

How Understanding Elliot Wave Analysis Can Enhance Your Stock Trading Strategy And Double Your Returns

By James P Kupe

Something all investors should consider before to making an investment decision is this: What is the current trend direction of the market right now? A working knowledge of Elliott Wave analysis can help to answer this question. By understanding the waves, we can often confidently know if the market is most likely to go up, down or sideways.

A good reason to take the time to understand Elliott Wave Theory is that it can help you to identify whether the market is trending, or is it in a reaction to the current trend. Understanding these patterns of market behavour can help you to accurately forecast where the market is likely to go next, and position yourself accordingly.

There are three major elements to Elliott Wave Theory

Pattern - Is the trend currently up or down? Is it in an impulse move or a correction?

Price - When the market has completed an impulse move, how far will it correct?

Time - How long will the current trend continue?

A bull market or up trend is signaled by a series of higher highs and higher lows, while a bear market or trend has a series lower highs and lower lows. You can see these wave patterns in the market over all time periods - daily, weekly, monthly, and if you are a short term trader, even on intra day charts.

When a market has a correction, the major support and resistance ratios are at .382, 50% and .618 and 100% of the previous range in both time and price. In other words, if a bull market were trending upwards strongly, you would expect a normal healthy correction to retrace on average 50% of the previous leg up in both time and price.

The shallower the retracement before the trend resumes, the stronger the trend is deemed to be. As an example, let's say a stock rallies $5.00 in 60 days. You would assume a 'normal' correction to be around $2.50 and take 30 days. If the market retraced only .382 in price ($1.91) and time (23 days), and then gave a signal that it was starting to resume the rally, it would put the Stock in a very strong (bullish) position.

The major importance of understanding the Elliott Wave pattern for traders in the markets you watch is to determine the direction of the dominant trend. We always want to trade with the main trend, and if possible, enter at the end of corrections to the main trend so we can maximize our profit from the next move. But here's the problem - how do you know the correction is ending and the major trend is resuming?

There are any number of 'entry signals' traders use to enter trends - watching for higher highs and lows on our Swing Charts, entering on a Moving Average crossover, trading trend line breaks or new highs (or lows), etc. Your critical goal as a trader is to find an entry trigger you are comfortable with, something that has reliably identified the resumption of fast moving trends, and then take every entry signal that system gives you. Once you have found your signal and entered a trade, implement a trailing stop loss system that takes you out of your trades when each trend comes to an end.

When you do that, you'll find your trading becomes much less stressful, you'll have less losing trades, and your account balance will have every chance to grow consistently. - 23204

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