Macro Trading and Interest Rate Cycles
Macro traders via their mandate are able to trade any and all liquid asset classes. Whether they be stocks, bonds, commodities, or currencies macro traders look for the best risk to reward opportunities on the planet.
An area of the financial markets where macro traders tend to do really well is that of fixed income and interest rates. Both academia and practitioners of global macro have found this to be the case over the years. This is not a fluke as the basic trend of interest rates essentially screams profit opportunity.
Interest rates to go up one month, down one month, and then back up the next month. No, instead they tend to move in relatively smooth trends with the very rare blip where a central bank quickly reverses course.
Basically once rates start moving they typically keep going in the same direction for months if not years. Central banks are trying to manage economies and not a lemonade stand. In addition to the fact that rate cycles are a slow and methodological, central banks also let us see inside the machine by issuing periodic reports as to what is happening in their minds and in the economy.
If you take the time to track the economy and to read the central banks meeting notes you will have a very good chance at predicting what the bank will do. In fact even if you wait for the first easing or tightening announcement you will typically have ample time to out on some good trades to take advantage of it. This is because in a few months they will likely do the same thing again and again. These trends are real and they last for a while.
Since interest rates effect every segment of the financial markets traders can make money in stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies. Typically when rates go down stocks go up and vice versa. When rates go down bonds go up and vice versa.
In fact fixed income is one of the primary profit drivers of macro trading. Because interest rate trends are so well defined the risk is less then an outright position is stocks or commodities in a normal cycle. Yes, there are still risks but they are lessened. If rate are coming down bonds will go up and if they are going up then bonds will go down.
Global macro traders are the kings of interest rate trends and profiting from them. If you want to generate higher returns with less volatility then it pays to track rate trends and position yourself accordingly. One other bonus is that in this electronic age central banks are becoming more and more transparent, making our jobs all a lot easier. - 23204
An area of the financial markets where macro traders tend to do really well is that of fixed income and interest rates. Both academia and practitioners of global macro have found this to be the case over the years. This is not a fluke as the basic trend of interest rates essentially screams profit opportunity.
Interest rates to go up one month, down one month, and then back up the next month. No, instead they tend to move in relatively smooth trends with the very rare blip where a central bank quickly reverses course.
Basically once rates start moving they typically keep going in the same direction for months if not years. Central banks are trying to manage economies and not a lemonade stand. In addition to the fact that rate cycles are a slow and methodological, central banks also let us see inside the machine by issuing periodic reports as to what is happening in their minds and in the economy.
If you take the time to track the economy and to read the central banks meeting notes you will have a very good chance at predicting what the bank will do. In fact even if you wait for the first easing or tightening announcement you will typically have ample time to out on some good trades to take advantage of it. This is because in a few months they will likely do the same thing again and again. These trends are real and they last for a while.
Since interest rates effect every segment of the financial markets traders can make money in stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies. Typically when rates go down stocks go up and vice versa. When rates go down bonds go up and vice versa.
In fact fixed income is one of the primary profit drivers of macro trading. Because interest rate trends are so well defined the risk is less then an outright position is stocks or commodities in a normal cycle. Yes, there are still risks but they are lessened. If rate are coming down bonds will go up and if they are going up then bonds will go down.
Global macro traders are the kings of interest rate trends and profiting from them. If you want to generate higher returns with less volatility then it pays to track rate trends and position yourself accordingly. One other bonus is that in this electronic age central banks are becoming more and more transparent, making our jobs all a lot easier. - 23204
About the Author:
If you need actionable trading ideas then check out The Macro Trader It is a weekly global macro investor advisory publication with frequent intra-week updates for time-critical analysis and actionable trading ideas.
posted by X - Men @ 2:32 AM
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