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Monday, November 9, 2009

Know These Seasonal Effects While Trading

By Ahmad Hassam

Markets tend to react to the outside events. Markets react to the seasons. Markets react to holidays. Markets react to political crisis. Markets are what the people are thinking. The day before the Presidents day is the worst day and the day after the Easter is the worst day after. However, you should keep in mind that a lot of other factors also come into play and you have a lot of room for error. The next best holiday bets are the Labor Day and the Memorial Day because they fall before the first day of trading in September and June respectively.

Children love Santa Claus. Do the markets love Santa Claus? You must have heard about the Santa Claus Rally? Most of the folks usually feel fairly good about themselves around this time of the year. The best time of the year to own stocks is the Santa Claus rally which for all practical purposes is the 17 day stretch from December 21 to January 7. This is the best time of the year. People are happy and the markets are happy.

FED tends to lower interest rates during holidays in order to go into the New Year with less of a worry if the economy is slowing down. There is a low trading volume which tends to exaggerate the trend if the economy is not doing well and is slowing down. However, when you are dealing with seasonality, you should keep these facts in your mind:

1) The market is not longer static. The seasonal effect may get interrupted by other events. More and more people have real time access to information and larger amounts of capital than at any time in the past.

2) Institutional investors like mutual funds, hedge funds and insurance companies have become important players in the markets. So in case of an event free environment, seasonal tendencies may hold up fairly well. At the end of the year, institutional investors want to make their results look as good as possible to their shareholders and tend to buy the stocks and so on.

3) The days of long term investing or what you call buy and hold are dead! Frequent market crashes have taught the investing public that investing for the long term is fairly risky. So there is more short term trading going on. These are the times for day traders and swing traders. With fewer people willing to hold stocks for longer periods, it is very difficult to predict seasonality.

4) The recent market crash was the result of CMO and Default Swaps bringing down the banks and Insurance companies in ways that had not been anticipated or foreseen by the analysts. Many had assumed that derivate securities are safe. Infact they have highly unpredictable tendencies. Derivates and outside the market trading activities can result in highly unpredictable patterns.

Many things are changing. The world is always changing. There is a change in demographics also taking place. With the aging of the population, the overall trend will be towards more income producing investments. So with everyone talking about the seasonal tendencies in the market, it reliability becomes less diminished. - 23204

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Learning Divergence Trading

By Ahmad Hassam

Price oscillator divergences have long been acknowledged by technical traders as a solid indicator of potential price reversals. But it doesn't mean that divergences will always predict a reversal correctly. However, well defined divergences particularly on the long term charts can be surprisingly accurate in many instances.

Price divergence oscillators can be spotted with just two elements on the price charts. Catching a major price reversal at the correct time can be so profitable that only a few accurate divergence signals are needed to offset the inevitable false signals.

The first element is the price and the second element is an oscillator that runs either above or below a price level. This second element can be Stochastics, RSI, MACD or any similar oscillator.

Many traders use Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD- pronounced McDee) as their sole confirming indicator. The MACD is among the most popular technical indicator or an oscillator invented.

Some traders also take trading signals exclusively from MACD. MACD is a multifaceted indicator that acts as a sign of trend momentum by representing the relationship between two moving averages.

You must have used MACD in your trading. MACD is basically the difference between two moving averages. MACD can be traded by taking signals from the crossovers of two lines, crosses above and below the zero line. Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) is another popular oscillator that provides a measure of price momentum.

RSI is an indicator that gives overbought and oversold signals in ranging markets. However, its usefulness like most other indicators tends to diminish during a trending market. RSI may also be used for divergence purposes. Stochastic indicator may also be used for divergence trading.

Technically speaking what is a divergence? When there is an imbalance between the price element and the oscillator element a divergence occurs. This is the point when the oscillator is providing a strong hint that price may be losing its momentum and a change in price direction may therefore be impending. Both the price action and the oscillator begin to go separate ways and start telling opposite stories.

A bearish divergence is a hint for an impending reversal back down. A bearish divergence occurs when the price hits a higher high while the oscillator hits a lower high.

What does a bearish divergence means? It is an indication that price may soon turn and go back down as the higher high in the price may lose its momentum and begin falling in case of a bearish divergence.

On the other hand, a bullish divergence occurs when price hits a lower low while the oscillator hits a corresponding higher low. A bullish divergence hints at an impending reversal back up.

When used in conjunction with other trading tools, divergences can be a remarkably effective method for helping to time major market events. Divergences are often used as hints of possible turns and reversals. However, divergences are not frequently used as a full fledged self sufficient trading strategy. - 23204

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Day Trading For a Living - What to Do In A Volatile Market

By Peter Skonctuedt

It is not a secret, nor is it surprising that the economy has gone downhill at an alarming rate recently. Many have even wondered if it's a good idea to look to day trading for a living as a viable source of income. It is important to look at all the options and take many considerations before even choosing to day trade.

That statement alone will raise a number of questions. After all, how can it be possible to look towards economic gains in a down economy? Is this not a terrible time for investing much less trading?

The thing is, even though the economy is in the dump right now, it still has it's ups and downs. This means the economy is going to fluctuate quite a bit, and there will be quite a few trading opportunities. If you are well versed in the art of day trading, then you'll have the ability to use this to your advantage.

Keep in mind that a trader needs to purchase shares when the market is low, and then sell as soon as it goes higher. This is what keeps day trading alive, and a smart trader knows how to do this properly.

The way the market is going up and down right now can work in the favor of one who is well versed in the art of day trading. Just remember that this isn't a perfect opportunity. It can become rather complicated, and a professional will be quite familiar with this concept.

Essentially, once you've made your investment, look around and look at lower prices. Yes, it's a risk, and there are many people who end up losing, but then there are those who gain heavily. Which one will happen to you? Either way, you need to be ready for the best or the worst.

A key aspect most need to understand in depth is the fact that there is no standardized market landscape that day trading will automatically yield a desired or predictable result. If such a possibility existed, the ability to take part in day trading for a living would be a lot easier and more people would amass huge profits. Obviously, this is not the case in reality. Trading can never be predictable.

The fluctuations won't always lock in your success. It doesn't mean that you are going to fail either. It just means that there are plenty of opportunities out there. Buy when it's low, sell when it's high.

Though it's not something you can predict entirely accurately, a gut instinct may develop over time. Some people will know when the best time is to make a trade. As you can guess, this is a valuable resource to have.

Some people will do it on their own, and some people will use trading robots. It doesn't matter how you do it, just know that there are many people with quite a bit on the line in the market. Whether they succeed or fail depends on the choices that they make.

In some cases picking the right trade might make a person famous. It's not unheard of actually. You'd be amazed at all the things that can happen in such a unique market. - 23204

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Forex Trading On Automatic Mode

By Danielle Deray



Forex trader experts say that disciplined people are the ones who easily succeed in the trading business. Hence, the question: Are you a disciplined individual? Be honest and ask that to yourself. Disciplined people reel-in constant profits because they maintain their responsibility despite the fluctuating trends of Forex. Today, Automated Forex has been making changes in the industry. Savvy traders can definitely make use of these automated systems.

Newbies, be observant of the online trading systems that invade the Internet, most of these systems are considered useless and junk. Mostly, these programs provide tested simulations wrapped with hyped marketing strategies that fail to work. Be careful when using similar system as you can lose your investment.

Despite the number of online Forex trading scams, there are still effective Forex robot from the Internet. Keep in mind that simpler systems are easier to manipulate and execute. Hence, the complex ones are difficult. You see, complex and pricey system does not mean they can guarantee you success every time.

Say, you think that one of the currencies will take the top spot for five straight weeks. You bought it. On the other hand, if your currency is about to hit rock bottom, you sell it. This kind of system is known as breakout, wherein your move is determined by the highs and lows trends of the Forex market. A little more practice and you'd be able to penetrate the big trends.

Big trends are those that last for several weeks, months, or even years. The Forex charts can be your resource to study the trends. Today, we are blessed with an automatic and objective Forex robot. This can work on itself for fifteen minutes each day. Allowing you to save time. The man who made this happen is Richard Donchian, an enthusiastic Forex trader.

People who are inclined to make use of simple programs would greatly benefit from this Forex robot. On the other hand, traders who seek for complicated system feels that this system is lacking. Thus, they search for a program that would satisfy their preferences. Actually, Forex robots aren't all fussy, it can be helpful as you determine which are the top and bottom picks.

Successful Forex traders spend enough time and effort to make informed trading decisions. As a wise trader, you should not rush things. Allow the system to work. Don't believe in the myth that complex and expensive systems are more efficient. If you're serious in Forex trading, you can earn lots of profits with minimal effort.

What you could do is study the market's trend. After observing, if you think the Forex robot's feature can be of help, then utilize its features. The system is logical, simple and can work continuously, giving you extra time and money to spend for your other needs. If you want to give it a try, you may simple obtain one online. No need to worry for charges, as there are numerous free programs. Before you install one, check its background, rating and testimonials. The feedback from current and past users are informative and important.

Our era is a far cry from the world we have years ago. A lot of our manual works have been replaced by automated machines. So, if you want an automated system, you may replace the effort and time you spend with this Forex robot. It is a method that works in the long run, allowing you to save great money. To know more about Richar Donchian, the author of this sytem, you may simple search his work online. - 23204

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Some Excellent Tips on Day Trading For a Living

By Peter Skonctuedt

Have you considered taking up day trading and doing it for your living? If this has crossed your mind, then you've probably thought up a great reason for doing so. There is much more to life than having all the money in the world, but having money will save you a considerable amount of money in the long run, which makes it well worth it to have some.

When someone wants to take up day trading for a living, their biggest motivation is usually the money involved. It's not all glory at the beginning however. In fact, there are quite a few things that need to be overcome before an individual can actually turn a profit with day trading. Luckily, those who have been successful have implemented a number of different tips. We will share these with you, and with luck you will find your way in the day trading world.

The first thing you should do is make sure you get a good robot trading program. You need to do quite a bit of research before you actually get into trading. For this reason, you will need to get a good robot so that you can learn all you need to know while watching it work it's magic.

Look over every single change that you have made. You need to look at every trade, whether it was successful or not. This will help you determine where you have made your successes and your failures so that you know how to do it better next time.

Do a review of your trades, as this will help more than you know. Keep an eye out for trends, and if possible repeat the ones that were a success. Short term, this seems like a lot of work. Long term, it will make you a lot of money. Do the math.

Using this, there is a chance that you will eventually come up with a system. As system that can help you to make your way to becoming a 24/7 day trader. This is worlds apart from just trying your luck aimlessly and hoping that everything turns out okay. When you come up with a system, you are advised to just stick with it, as this will increase your chances for success in the day trading world.

Don't make a trade because you feel you are obligated to do so. Make a trade when you feel that it is the right move to make. Do not assume that you have to make a trade everyday. Such an approach is not a good one when you hope for a lengthy career day trading for a living.

If you're losing money, then find out where the money is going, but don't take a gamble. Just figure out a way to make more money later on. By trading smartly, you'll lengthen your career and be happier overall.

Ensure that you don't spend all of your time trying to change things that are out of your control. Something you will need to accept is the fact that the market is always going to change, and things will go in ways that you don't want them to.

It's not going to be easy, and it will require a lot of learning. By absorbing as much knowledge as possible, you'll be a step ahead and you'll be able to do things the way you're supposed to. Learning is not optional when you are day trading for a living! - 23204

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